Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

This article is about the ongoing civil war. For the nonviolent protests, see Myanmar protests (2021–present).

Myanmar civil war
Part of the internal conflict in Myanmar
Military situation as of early 2022:      State Administration Council (Tatmadaw and allies)      Joint control between the SAC and EAOs in a ceasefire agreement      Wa State (United Wa State Army and allies)      Contested
Date 5 May 2021 – present (2 years, 6 months, 3 weeks and 1 day) Location Rural areas of Myanmar Status Ongoing Territorial changes Tatmadaw's stable control drops to between 72–220 out of 330 townships, though continues to control all major population centers
Belligerents
National Unity Government PDF CDF CNDF KNDF MRDA SAF CPB PLA Allied ethnic armed organisations: Brotherhood Alliance MNDAA TNLA ULA-AA ANC ANC-AA KIO KIA KNU KNLA KNDO ABSDF KNPP KA KNPLF CNF CNA PSLF BPLA	State Administration Council Tatmadaw Army Air Force Coast Guard Border Guard Police Border Police Pyusawhti Thway Thout PNA SNA ZRA
Commanders and leaders
Duwa Lashi La Mahn Win Khaing Than Yee Mon Khun Bedu Bo Nagar Honey Nway Oo Htang Gam Shawng Padoh Kwe Htoo Win Than Khe Khu Oo Reh U Tun Kyaw Pu Zing Cung Peng Daxun Tar Bone Kyaw Twan Mrat Naing Maung Saungkha	Min Aung Hlaing Soe Win Mya Tun Oo Yar Pyae Ni Lin Aung Aung Lin Dwe U Aung Kham Hti Sao Meim Liam Thanglianpau Guite
Strength
65,000 (PDF, November 2022 estimate) and 135,000 (LDF and EAOs)	about 150,000 personnel; 70,000 combat troops (Tatmadaw, May 2023 estimate)
Casualties and losses
Total killed: 41,959 (per ACLED, 10 November 2023) 4,154 civilians killed, 25,331 arrested (per AAPP, 23 October 2023) 2,005,200+ internally displaced, 95,600 refugees per United Nations 23 November 2023 11,400 residences destroyed (per ISP–Myanmar and Data for Myanmar, as of 12 May 2022) 12,000 civilian properties estimated burnt or destroyed since February 2022 (per OCHA, 31 May 2022) 440 houses and buildings sealed off by the Junta (per AAPP, February 2022).

The Myanmar civil war, also called the Myanmar Spring Revolution and the People's Defensive War, is an ongoing civil war following Myanmar's long-running insurgencies which escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d'état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests.

In the months following the coup, the opposition began to coalesce around the National Unity Government, which launched an offensive against the State Administration Council (SAC), the military junta. By 2022, the opposition controlled substantial, though sparsely populated, territory. In many villages and towns, the junta's attacks drove out tens of thousands of people. On the second anniversary of the coup, in February 2023, the chairman of the SAC, Min Aung Hlaing, admitted to losing stable control over "more than a third" of townships. Independent observers note the real number is likely far higher, with as few as 72 out of 330 townships remaining under the control of the Tatmadaw, the military forces aligned with the junta. However, the townships under the control of the junta include all major population centres.

As of September 2022, 1.3 million people had been internally displaced, and over 13,000 children have been killed. By March 2023, the UN estimated that since the coup, 17.6 million people in Myanmar required humanitarian assistance, while 1.6 million were internally displaced, and 55,000 civilian buildings had been destroyed. UNOCHA said that over 40,000 people had fled into neighbouring countries.

In October 2023, Burmese media outlets began reporting that the lower ranks of the Tatmadaw were beginning to empty, with desertions and low morale being extremely common. It has also been reported that the Tatmadaw now controls under 40% of the country. In early November 2023, it was reported that three armed militias in northern Burma, the MNDAA, TNLA, and AA, had officially fully entered the conflict. A statement released by the three said they had captured over 80 military bases and the border town of Chinshwehaw. Several joint counteroffensives have also been launched by major rebel groups against the military junta, such as Operation 1027 and 1107. The offensives have been described as successful, with nearly 200 townships captured by rebels.

Background

See also: 2021 Myanmar coup d'état and Myanmar protests (2021–present)

On the morning of 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw successfully deposed the elected Myanmar government in a coup, forming a military junta. Former president Win Myint, Aung San Suu Kyi, and several other members of the National League for Democracy were detained during early morning raids and Min Aung Hlaing was placed as the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services and de facto ruler of the nation.

The exact motives behind the coup are unclear. In the leadup to the coup, the Tatmadaw claimed that the 2020 general elections had 8.6 million voter irregularities, but presented no evidence. The coup may have been a way to re-establish the military's long-reigning power over the country which ended ten years prior.

The bloody repression of anti-coup demonstrations led to the creation of armed groups to fight the State Administration Council, the military junta. Gathered under the name of the People's Defence Force (PDF) and the orders of the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by parliamentarians in office before the coup d'état, the PDF and the NUG officially declared a "defensive war" against the military regime in September 2021. The ACLED estimated that as of 29 July 2022, around 23,521 people in total had been killed in the violence following the 2021 coup.

Existing conflict

Main article: Internal conflict in Myanmar

See also: List of ethnic armed organisations in Myanmar

Insurgencies have been ongoing in Myanmar since 1948 and have largely been ethnic-based. Communist insurgencies and the Karen National Union were the primary opposition actors to the central government. Over the 20th century, several prominent ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) rose and fell in influence and control. Larger rebel factions such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) formed in response to Ne Win's 1962 Burmese coup d'état and its increased political repression. The 8888 Uprising, in response to the totalitarian rule of Ne Win, resulted in some of the first modern Bamar militias forming from protestors heading to areas under ethnic rebel control.

In the aftermath of the 8888 Uprising, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), later known as the State Peace and Development Council, formed a military junta. The Tatmadaw severely weakened ethnic insurgent groups, destroying most of their bases and strongholds through the 1990s. By the time of the 2011–2015 Myanmar political reforms, the junta had regained control of many long-time rebel strongholds including Kokang and Karen State.

As part of its political reforms and democratisation, the 2008 Constitution created self-administered zones with increased autonomy. In 2015, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) was signed between eight EAOs and the central government. However, by 2018 the NCA had begun to fall apart, due to alleged violations of the agreement by Tatmadaw soldiers entering EAO territories to build roads. Many non-signatories continued the conflict. In late 2016, four non-signatories of the NCA formed the Northern Alliance, including the KIA and Arakan Army, engaged in war with the central government and other EAOs.

Prelude

Main article: 2021 Myanmar protests

Armed protestors

By late March 2021, dozens of protesters had travelled to Myanmar's border areas to enlist in and train under one of the country's many insurgent groups, elevating the risk of a countrywide civil war. The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw also proposed the formation of a "federal armed force" to combat the military, and in late March the Arakan Army (AA) threatened to end its ceasefire with the military should the latter "persist in massacring civilians".

During late March, protesters increasingly began arming themselves with homemade weapons such as guns in an attempt to defend themselves against attacks by the military. Simultaneously, clashes with soldiers and IED attacks against administrative buildings and police stations became more common as the trend of protesters using armed resistance rose.

Renewed ethnic conflict

Main article: 2021 Kalay clashes

The unrest across the nation and the increased need for junta troops in previously peaceful urban areas strengthened EAOs. The KIA had already been on the offensive against the military since February and seized the military base of Alaw Bum near the town of Laiza on 25 March 2021. The next day, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) attacked a military base, killing 10 soldiers and taking others hostages in the first attack on the military since the protests began. The following day saw the 2021 Kalay clashes, the first openly armed resistance by protesters in the town of Kalay against the junta. Protestors used homemade weapons against soldiers and security forces attacking a protest camp.

The military junta declared that it would cease all military operations on 29 March 2021 and hold bilateral negotiations with ethnic armed groups. However, the KIA continued its offensives stating that the Myanmar Army had continued operations as usual. Through April, the informal clashes intensified, such as on 8 April when protesters fought back against soldiers with hunting rifles and firebombs in a battle that resulted in 11 protester deaths. The same day, the number of deaths related to anti-coup protests in the country surpassed 600 since 1 February 2021.

Seven insurgent groups who were signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement aligned themselves with the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, including the All Burma Student Democratic Front and the Karen National Union. The Northern Alliance, comprising the Arakan Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, attacked a police station in Naungmon, Shan State, killing at least 10 police officers and indicating their disregard of the junta's call for a ceasefire. In response, on 11 April 2021, the junta military launched a counter-attack to recapture the Alaw Bum base using airstrikes and ground troops, but had to retreat amidst heavy casualties.

New conflicts

Main article: Clashes in Chin State

On 26 April, the Battle of Mindat became one of the first large-scale conflicts arising from the 2021 coup. The Chinland Defense Force (CDF) began armed resistance in Mindat, Chin State. As a response, the junta cut off food and water supplies and declared martial law. Fighting began when a group of demonstrators outside the town's Aung San statue requested the release of six of their arrested colleagues and a soldier of the regime allegedly fired at someone, prompting protesters to react. According to an aid worker, more than 10,000 people left Mindat in southern Chin State as the Myanmar military started an all-out operation to quell an armed revolt headed by local citizens. The battle lasted four days, killing 30 junta soldiers with no casualties for the CDF. Mindat has been a ghost town since.

Onset of formal resistance

For a chronological guide, see Timeline of the Myanmar civil war (2021–present).

On 16 April 2021, pro-democracy politician Min Ko Naing announced the formation of the National Unity Government, with members of ethnic minority groups in senior roles. As part of the announcement he said that ousted leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint would retain their positions, and that members of the Kachin and Karen minorities would have top priority in the new parallel government. In the same announcement, Min Ko Naing asked the international community to recognise their government over the junta.

The National Unity Government then declared the formation of an armed wing on 5 May 2021, a date that is often cited as the start of the civil war. This armed wing was named the People's Defence Force (PDF) and was formed to protect its supporters from military junta attacks and as a first step towards a Federal Union Army. The PDF clashed with the Tatmadaw in the town of Muse on 23 May, killing at least 13 members of Myanmar's security forces. In early June, fighting erupted in Myawaddy District in which the military and Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) battled against a combined force of Karen ethnic armed groups and the PDF, leaving dozens of junta troops killed.

Entrance to Loikaw

Members of the Karenni People's Defence Force (KPDF) in Kayah State also captured and destroyed several Tatmadaw outposts near the state capital of Loikaw. Towards the end of May, the Tatmadaw used artillery and helicopters to strike PDF and KPDF positions in Loikaw and Demoso. On 30 May, the KIA joined the anti-coup People's Defence Force battling junta troops in Katha Township, killing eight regime soldiers. Fighting was also continuing in Putao, Hpakant and Momauk Townships.

On 22 June, junta forces using armoured vehicles raided a safehouse of the PDF in Mandalay, detaining several fighters. Myanmar security forces killed at least 25 people in a confrontation with opponents of the military junta in the central town of Tabayin. 50 junta soldiers were reportedly killed in a series of landmine attacks by resistance fighters in Gangaw Township. These attacks occurred in Central Myanmar, also known as Anyar, an area that had rarely seen armed violence in recent times.

Declaration of war

On 7 September 2021, the NUG declared a state of emergency across the nation and launched a people's defensive war against the military junta.

The declaration of war increased the number of skirmishes and clashes between PDF militias, EAOs and the military junta across the country. On 10 September, at least 17 people were killed during clashes between the military and resistance militia in Myin Thar village, Magway region. On 14 September, the National Unity Government claimed that over 1700 junta soldiers had been killed and 630 wounded in fighting during the previous three months. Several major clashes took place from September to October in Chin State, Sagaing Region, Magwe Region, Kayah State and Shan State.

On 7 October, junta-controlled media reported that at least 406 junta informants had been killed and 285 wounded since 1 February in targeted attacks by resistance forces.

Humanitarian crisis

By late September 2021, 8,000 residents of Thantlang town, Chin state, fled to Mizoram, India after houses were set ablaze by the junta army.

On 28 September, at least 20 junta soldiers were reported killed in ambushes in Shan state. At least 4 resistance fighters died in the clashes, along with an unarmed 70-year-old civilian.

On 16 November, junta forces overran and captured the base camp of Kalay PDF in a southwestern district of the Sagaing Region town of Kalay. A total of 9 Kalay PDF medics were captured and 2 PDF fighters were killed.

2021–2022 dry season campaigns

According to analyst Matthew Arnold, the civil war's momentum passed a critical threshold by the end of the 2022 dry season where the revolutionary sentiment had growing into a broader social and armed resistance that the junta could no longer suppress.

Shan and Kayah State

See also: Mo So massacre

Moe Bye Reservoir

On 17 November 2021, dozens of junta soldiers from Light Infantry Battalion 442 ambushed an outpost of the Moebye PDF in Pekon Township in Shan State. PDF forces were outnumbered and forced to retreat after being surrounded. Later in November, junta forces ambushed and destroyed a base belonging to Monywa PDF's Squadron 205 near Palin village in Monywa, Sagaing Region, forcing resistance fighters to flee. The base was the site of a workshop where the PDF had made explosive devices, which were destroyed during the raid. On 25 November, junta forces ambushed and killed 4 scouting team members from the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) near the village of Hohpeik in Demoso Township. At least four junta soldiers from Light Infantry Battalion 428 were killed in Hpruso Township in mid-December after four days of fighting with members of the KNDF and Karenni Army.

On 14 December, around 200 Tatmadaw troops searched the Karen National Union (KNU)-controlled town of Lay Kay Kaw Myothit near the Thai border. The soldiers, who were looking for activists and members of the PDF, arrested several people believed to be linked to anti-junta movements, including the MP for Myaungmya Township, Wai Lin Aung. On 20 December, Tatmadaw forces burned down nineteen houses in the village of Kunnar in Loikaw Township after taking it from the KNDF the week before.

On 24 December, more than 35 people were massacred when they were ambushed by junta troops outside the village of Mo So in Kayah State. Two staff members of the aid group Save the Children were among those killed, prompting the organisation to suspend operations in Kayah State and several other areas. The United Nations Security Council condemned the attack and called for a "thorough and transparent investigation" into the incident.

Throughout March and February 2022, the junta carried out repeated air strikes against civilian targets in villages in Kayin and Kayah states. Witnesses from six villages in the region also described soldiers systematically looting jewelry, cash, vehicles, and other valuables. Amnesty International states that the junta was employing collective punishment against the country's ethnic minorities.

Kachin State

Location of Shwegu

In late November 2021, the KIA and 100 junta soldiers battled near Kachinthay, a village about 16 km east of the town of Shwegu. The clash occurred after an aerial bombardment allegedly carried out by 2 Su-30 fighter jets that the Myanmar military recently acquired. On the same day, Matupi CDF teamed up with the Chin National Army to attack an outpost of Light Infantry Battalion 304 on the road linking Matupi to the town of Paletwa. The resistance forces only managed to kill 2 junta soldiers on guard duty before having to retreat. The junta forces also carried out a night operation in December in which they captured and burned a camp of the Thein Min PDF (TM-PDF) after a heavy firefight. The resistance fighters were then forced to retreat, resulting in 2 TM-PDF fighters killed and several others injured. A little under a week after the junta's airstrikes against the KIA in Mohnyin, about 50 soldiers from Tatmadaw's Infantry Battalion 42 attacked KIA territory near Nyaung Htauk village in Mohnyin. Another clash happened on the same day near Wailon village along the road linking Hpakant with Mohnyin, about 17 miles from Hpakant's urban centre. The junta's artillery unit fired around 30 shells at the clash site to support the advance of infantry.

The KIA claimed that around 200 junta soldiers, including a battalion commander, had been killed in three days of clashes in Hpakant Township in early February.

Central Myanmar

On 9 December 2021, resistance fighters from the Myaing PDF in Magway Region attacked two military vehicles with 3 handmade explosives in an ambush. The PDF claimed the ambush injured at least 3 soldiers. Later at noon, PDF attacked soldiers again who were leaving the village of Mintharkya, sparking a shootout between the two sides. Salingyi G-Z Local PDF fighters and one civilian were captured and burned by junta soldiers after PDF fighters had detonated explosives in an attack against a military convoy travelling nearby, which triggered an assault on the village by about 100 junta soldiers. On 13 December, Tatmadaw troops launched an offensive against PDF fighters and other local groups in Ke Bar village in Sagaing Region's Ayadaw Township with assistance of artillery. The resistance fighters had to retreat.

In December 2021, the military sent around 150 soldiers of the Airborne Division in six helicopters to the west of Depayin to carry out Air Assault missions. Tatmadaw forces surrounded Sagaing's Depayin Township where PDF fighters were positioned. On 17 December, the Tatmadaw and members of the military-backed Pyusawhti militia launched a surprise air assault on the village of Hnan Khar in Magway Region's Gangaw Township, killing 20 resistance fighters from Yaw Defence Force.

At least 30 junta soldiers and allied militiamen from the Pyusawhti militia were killed by joint PDF attacks in Kani Township, Sagaing Region on 1 February 2022. Flotillas transporting supplies and soldiers by the junta were ambushed, with at least one flotilla set on fire during the attacks. On 7 February, junta soldiers were killed in surprise attacks by local PDFs in the Sagaing Region. These attacks were one of the first attacks where resistance forces used drones.

On 10 February 2022, as targeted personnel attacks increased, around 50 Myanmar junta personnel were reportedly killed during raids and ambushes by PDF in three townships in Sagaing Region on 9 February. Later in February, 32 junta soldiers and 20 resistance fighters were killed in clashes in Mobye, southern Shan State as well as in Khin-U Township, Sagaing Region.

Mandalay also saw civilian guerrilla groups with PDFs in Maha Aung Myay and Pyigyidagun Townships shooting at junta forces and throwing homemade bombs. Tatmadaw troops killed 8 Mandalay civilian guerrillas and raided two resistance hideouts in retaliation. At least 4 junta troops were also killed in attacks by PDF forces on 12 February 2022 in Naypyitaw, the capital city, during the military's Union Day celebrations. Many other cities also saw violent clashes during Union Day.

Chin State

On 8 December 2021, a 90-minute clash broke out between the CDF and Tatmadaw forces in the military-occupied town of Thantlang. This was after Tatmadaw launched a major offensive against CDF that allowed the Tatmadaw forces to reoccupy the town from the CDF. 3 CDF fighters were reportedly killed during the clash. More houses were burned in military-occupied Thantlang that week, with well over a quarter of the Chin State town's buildings destroyed in 12 incidents, making it difficult for CDF rebels to hide in the buildings.

On 30 March, around 20 junta soldiers were reportedly killed in ambushes that targeted junta convoys in Mindat Township, Chin state.

Yangon

On 17 June 2021, an army vehicle exploded in Tarmwe Township, Yangon, allegedly killing several military personnel. On 14 December, Tatmadaw troops captured 12 suspected resistance fighters, including three who were injured, after several bombs exploded by accident in Yangon's Hlaing Thar Yar Township. Two additional resistance fighters who initially escaped were also captured later on by plain-clothed soldiers. There have been several other cases of guerrilla fighters across Myanmar dying in accidents caused by handmade explosives.

Urban warfare became less practical and resistance forces began targeting junta-aligned officials. According to junta-aligned sources, 367 junta-appointed officials had been assassinated in targeted attacks since February 2021. Resistance forces also began targeting the homes of junta pilots in Yangon in response to airstrikes on civilians.

Karen State

Thai border gate in Myawaddy

On the evening of 21 March, Brigade 6 of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) stormed and occupied a Tatmadaw camp in the village of Maw Khi in Wallay Myaing subtownship, Myawaddy District, Kayin State. Eight Tatmadaw soldiers were killed according to Khit Thit Media.

Fighting broke out in parts of Loikaw City on 14 April. Recent combat in Kayin state led to an increase in refugees on the Thai border.

On 15 April, junta soldiers suffered at least 30 casualties after being pushed back by the KNLA at the battle for Lay Kay Kaw. Later in April, 2 junta officers and 24 men working for the military council's electricity department were arrested by KNDF forces in southern Shan State's Pekon Township.

Other regions

On 31 January 2022, at least three dozen junta soldiers were reportedly killed in ambushes over three days in Magwe, Sagaing and Tanintharyi regions and Chin, Shan and Kayah states. In March, a local defence force based in Tanintharyi Region's Kawthaung District claimed that they killed three Myanmar army soldiers, confiscated weapons and occupied a police station in the area.

In early 2022, the Arakan Army and the junta clashed again in northern Rakhine State. On 8 February, Arakan Army and junta forces clashed on at least two occasions in Maungdaw in Rakhine State. Fighting broke out on 4 February when junta troops carried out a sneak attack on an AA outpost near the Letpan Mountains northeast of Mee Taik Village, killing an AA sentry, according to AA spokesman Khaing Thukha. Three hours of clashes were also reported on 6 February. The clashes raised fears of a breakdown of the informal ceasefire between the AA and the military which had been in place since November 2020. Two civilians were also reportedly killed in further clashes in northern Maungdaw on the night of 7 February. Several junta troops, including a major, were reportedly killed in the attack.

2022 monsoon season campaigns

The intensity of fighting decreased during the monsoon season. Resistance forces were advantaged by the rainfall as the junta could not carry out air strikes as easily.

On 31 May 2022, a bombing killed one person and injured nine others near the Sule Pagoda in Yangon, Myanmar. State media accused the People's Defence Force of being responsible for this attack, which responsibility the PDF denies.

In June, resistance groups achieved control of 40–50% of the country. Arakan Army claimed to administer most of Rakhine State with an independent government. Chin National Front and Chinland Defense Force made plans to establish a new government. The KIA and United Wa State Army consolidated expanded territories. However, the Myanmar Army retained tight control of almost every city in Myanmar and most of the country's natural resources, including important jade mines.

In July, the Karen National Union stated that roughly 2,200 junta soldiers and militiamen had been killed since January 2022. Around 40 junta soldiers and 11 PDF fighters were also reportedly killed in clashes in Pekon Township, Shan state.

In September, retired Brigadier General Ohn Thwin, mentor to State Administration Council vice-chairman Senior General Soe Win, was assassinated by anti-regime guerilla groups in Yangon. This assassination caused an increase in security on high-ranking junta personnel.

Breakdown of Arakan ceasefire

Between June and August 2022, the informal ceasefire reached in late 2020 between the Arakan Army (AA) and the junta broke down. The Arakan Army had consolidated control during this period, avoiding the initial violence of the war, and rolled out many public services and local administrators in northern Rakhine state. With the military's attention diverted to the increasing resistance elsewhere and increasing popular support for an alliance with the NUG, the AA sought to expand its influence into southern Rakhine. Rhetoric from AA leader Twan Mrat Naing in June grew more provocative with military spokespeople stating that AA was inviting conflict.

Armed clashes resumed in July after the junta launched an airstrike against an AA base in Kayin State, killing 6 AA soldiers. AA retaliated in Maungdaw Township and western Chin State in late July and early August. By late August, land travel to northern Rakhine required passing a series of checkpoints and all public transport ships ceased operation due to river and land blockades.

Political sentences and international attention

In May 2022, NUG's Defence Minister Yee Mon requested international assistance to arm resistance groups similar to that given to Ukraine against Russia.

On 23 July 2022, the State Administration Council announced that it had executed four political prisoners, including Zayar Thaw and Kyaw Min Yu, which was the first use of the death penalty since the late 1980s. The event was widely seen as a provocation to escalate conflict by the Burmese military in the ongoing conflict. The international community, including United Nations Secretary-General, the G7 nations and the European Union strongly condemned the executions.

The military junta court sentenced former state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi to six years in prison for corruption in July. In September, Aung San Suu Kyi was sentenced to another three years in prison after being found guilty of election fraud. Her overall sentence totalled 20 years in prison for different charges.

The Bangladesh-Myanmar border

On 16 August, two mortar shells fired by the Myanmar Army landed in a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, killing one man and injuring five others. Myanmar Army helicopters allegedly entered Bangladeshi air space to attack the Arakan Army and fired a shell within Bangladeshi air space. Two days later, Bangladesh summoned Myanmar ambassador Aung Kyaw Moe to strongly protest the land and airspace violations. In October, Bangladeshi Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen made a statement that border bombings by Myanmar stopped after he met Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh, Li Jiming.

On 16 September 2022, the Burmese military killed 11 children and wounded another 17 as part of the Let Yet Kone massacre, during an airborne strike at a school in Letyetkone village, Sagaing Region. The military claimed that the village had been harbouring resistance fighters from the KIA and the People's Defense Force. The attack was widely condemned by the international community, including the United Nations and European Union.

2022–2023 dry season campaigns

Increased resistance efforts

In mid-October 2022, NUG issued a statement calling for the victory of the Spring Revolution by the end of 2023. This call to action was followed by increased fighting in urban areas and in Southeastern Myanmar with resistance forces. This occured in the wake of the junta torching at least 20 villages in the Sagaing and Magway regions to implement its "four cuts" strategy of attacking civilians to weaken anti-regime movements. However, according to Sagaing-based resistance spokespeople, victims who lost everything in the arson joined the resistance. The urgency of the resistance was likely prompted by the looming elections planned by the State Administration Council.

Chin State resistance forces used drones in a week-long siege of an outpost in Falam Township, killing 74% of the junta forces stationed. The forces ultimately failed to take the outpost due to the Myanmar Air Force's aerial bombardments.

Siege of Kawkareik

A street in Kawkareik

The Karen National Liberation Army stepped-up fighting in southeastern Myanmar and besieged Kawkareik. Fighting broke out on 21 October 2022 with a series of surprise attacks near the highway leading into the city and at government offices within the city. Resistance forces ultimately withdrew two days later after facing junta air strikes. Four days later, undeterred KNLA-led forces seized the junta base of Light Infantry Battalion 339 in Kya Inn Seikgyi Township, Karen State. On 28 October, airstrikes from the junta as part of continued fighting near Kawkareik struck and damaged a dam.

Lowland attacks

In November 2022, resistance in Bago Region increased. In Monyo Township, western Bago Region, PDF attacked a police building using cluster bombs. In eastern Bago, 15 junta soldiers were killed in a Bago PDF raid on a police station in Yedashe Township. Thousands of civilians also fled Shwegyin Township as resistance forces seized three military outposts. This seizure was a joint operation conducted by the KNU and the NUG's PaKaBha, a shadow township defence force controlled directly by the NUG's Ministry of Defence.

A rural area near Mawlaik, Sagaing Region

In early December, a video of PDF forces beating and shooting a woman dead emerged on social media. The NUG defence ministry told reporters that the incident happened in June in the town of Tamu, Sagain Region and that they were investigating the incident after detaining the perpetrators involved.

In early January 2023, PDF groups in Kani Township, Sagaing Region attacked junta supply ships, killing at least 25 soldiers. The junta increasingly used waterways for supplies, avoiding roadways in resistance-held areas. In April 2023, a combined PDF force led by Yinmabin District's PDF Battalion 1 seized a junta base on Tower Taing hill in Kani Township, killing 30 soldiers from the base and seizing around 16 weapons including automatic rifles and grenade launchers as well as ammunition, while only about 3 remaining junta soldiers from the base escaped.

In early 2023, the Mandalay People's Defence Force (MDY-PDF) announced their intentions to ramp up military operations. MDY-PDF alongside TNLA were engaged in a series of intense clashes with the junta forces in Nawnghkio Township near the Shan-Mandalay border, killing at least 75 junta soldiers and wounding 60 others. The junta used at least 900 military and pro-junta militia troops to attack resistance positions. They conducted artillery attacks and airstrikes but were forced to retreat.

Highland attacks

In Shan State, clashes between PDF forces near Inle Lake and the Pa-O National Organisation (PNO) broke out after the PNO coerced villages for speedboats and militia recruits.

On 7 January 2023, the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) and its resistance allies claimed that 1,692 regime troops and 211 resistance fighters were killed since the 2021 coup, 293 civilians had been killed by the regime, and 126 displaced civilians died while fleeing their homes in Kayah and Shan states in 2022.

In Chin State, February 2023, CNA captured Thantlang police station and took control of the town.

View of the Kalay-Falam Road

In April 2023, combined Chin resistance consisting of CNA, CNDF, and CDFs conducted multiple ambushes on a regime convoy that left Kalay for Falam and Hakha. The convoy consisted of at least 30 vehicles, including two armoured cars, and were carrying troops, equipment and food supplies. The resistance forces destroyed three vehicles, stopped the convoy and seized the two armoured vehicles. The NUG awared the combined Chin forces four hundred million kyat for seizing the two armoured vehicles. CNDF also attacked a junta base near Varr village on the Kalay-Falam Road in Falam Township, killing eleven regime soldiers, capturing fourteen, and seizing weapons and ammunition. Another junta convoy carrying 80 troops was ambushed multiple times by CNA and CDF-Mautpi on the road between Matupi and Paletwa, leaving the convoy with only about 50 troops, a dozen among whom were injured.

Urban attacks

In 2023, the number of attacks in urban areas increased. In March 2023, an urban guerilla group calling themselves Urban Owls assassinated Minn Tayzar Nyunt Tin, a legal and money-laundering aide to the junta with links to General Myat Hein, the former commander of the Air Force in Thanlyin, Yangon. Minn Tayzar Nyunt Tin helped draft the repressive Cyber Security Law, which was seen as violating digital rights, privacy and freedom of expression and has been accused of money laundering for the junta's generals. His companies helped buy condos, land and established companies.

Junta retaliation and atrocities

See also: Hpakant massacre

In October 2022, battles and skirmishes increased, as the junta committed several civilian atrocities. On 21 October, junta forces decapitated Saw Tun Moe, a high school teacher, and impaled his head on a NUG-administered school's spiked gate after burning and looting Taung Myint village in Magway Region.

Mogaung Township, east of Hpakant

Two days later, on 23 October, over 80 people were killed by an airstrike in Hpakant Township, Northern Myanmar, during an anniversary celebration for the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO). This was the single deadliest attack on civilians since the start of the renewed civil war. The junta denied civilian casualties while the United Nations condemned the attack.

In November, the junta continued burning villages in Sagaing Region, including the home of Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, the head of the Catholic Church in Myanmar. Junta soldiers also hid in civilian trucks impersonating workers to ambush local defence forces in Shwebo Township.

Scorched Earth

See also: Tar Taing massacre, Pinlaung massacre, and Pazigyi massacre

Resistance forces' ability to maintain strategic positions and outposts weakened in November as the dry season allowed for greater use of the Myanmar Air Force. Aerial bombardment, helicopter raids and artillery strikes typically followed skirmishes once junta forces sustained substantial losses and retreated. Once the entrapped junta forces were relieved by aerial support, they would engage in scorched earth tactics. World War Two veterans described the destruction as worse than the Burma campaign due to the deliberate targeting of civilian villages. During the week of 21 November, repeated junta air attacks along the Sagaing-Kachin border killed 80 and disrupted supply chains between the two resistance regions. Some analysts say that the heavy use of air forces indicated a lessened ability for the junta to fight on the ground. On the ground, the junta continued its scorched earth campaign across northern Myanmar, burning bases and villages they could no longer defend. Thousands of residents fled during the campaign as hundreds of homes were destroyed. The junta's operations in Sagaing region included one to secure the area around the Letpadaung Copper Mine in Salingyi Township for Chinese foreign workers planning to leave in the upcoming holidays.

In January 2023, the military launched air strikes at a village in Sagaing Region, killing seven civilians. On 23 February, army troops launched a new military offensive in Sagaing, raiding and pillaging villages at the confluence of the Irrawaddy and Mu Rivers. During the offensive, troops from the 99th Light Infantry Division executed at least 17 villagers during the Tar Taing massacre. Between 23 February to 5 March, army troops in Sagaing killed a total of 99 villagers, beheaded 20 resistance fighters, and raped at least 3 women.

Pinlaung, southern Shan State

In March, Army troops executed at least 30 villagers during the Pinlaung massacre in Shan State, including 3 Buddhist monks. In mid-April, Myanmar Air Force bombed a gathering celebration during the Pazigyi massacre in Sagaing Region killing at least 165 civilians, including several children, days before the Burmese new year. The junta's spokesperson General Zaw Min Tun stated that they chose to attack the village as they were opening an office for the PDF. The United Nations condemned the attack, citing a duty to protect civilians.

Martial law and paramilitaries

On 31 January 2023, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued a directive enabling organisations and citizens deemed "loyal to the state," including civilians, civil servants, and army personnel, to obtain firearms licenses. The directive stipulates that firearm applicants must be at least 18 years old, and must demonstrate a need for firearms for "personal security." The regulatory shift has enabled the military junta to arm pro-junta paramilitary groups like the Pyusawhti militias and to suppress pro-democracy forces in the country, in light of waning military recruitment and their challenges in concurrently operating in multiple war theatres throughout the country.

On 2 February 2023, Min Aung Hlaing imposed martial law in 37 townships with resistance activity, affecting millions of residents. On 12 February 2023, it was reported that the junta would be issuing firearms licenses to pro-regime civilians, based on a leaked document purportedly from the Home Ministry that provided for the operation of civilian counter-insurgency units based on the new firearm licensing directive.

Arakan ceasefire and subsequent new fronts

Fields in Maungdaw Township, northern Rakhine State

On 26 November, the Arakan Army and the junta agreed to a temporary ceasefire starting on 27 November. Yōhei Sasakawa of the Nippon Foundation brokered the ceasefire by acting as an intermediary. Arakan Army spokespeople maintain that they agreed to it for humanitarian reasons and not because of international pressure. The Arakan Army did not withdraw from fortifications held at the time of the ceasefire. Junta spokespeople say that this is the first step towards a permanent ceasefire with the Arakan Army. As of mid-December, tensions remained high with forces from both sides remaining in deployment within northern Rakhine State.

On 30 November, the military launched a major assault on the Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army using heavy weapons on a base near Chinshwehaw by the Chinese border. This assault continued into 2 December, reportedly sending 500 junta soldiers.

The military continued its campaign in northern Shan State against the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). On 7 December, the junta launched a ground offensive on the TNLA in the Battle of Namhsan using aerial bombs. After six days of fighting in the battle, the TNLA captured four villages from junta control killing 70 soldiers and capturing 28. On 17 December the junta retreated claiming that they reached an agreement with TNLA stating that they were targeting PDF forces and mistakenly attacked the TNLA. The TNLA rejected the statement. Continued clashes in late December forced over a thousand civilians to flee to Mogok.

2023 monsoon season campaigns

Myanmar's civilian Nation Unity Government in August claimed that 3,012 Myanmar junta troops were killed in 2023 between January and July. In Kayah state 667 military junta troops and 99 resistance members were killed and there were 2,495 battles which took place in KNU controlled area.

On 10 September, it was reported by local media that 15 junta supply trucks were destroyed near the KIA capital of Laiza.

On 15 September, it was reported that members of the Northern Thandaung Defense Force (NTDF) along with the drone unit Lethal Prop attacked the Aye Lar military base near the Naypyitaw International Airport with 2 makeshift bombs. It was the first ever documented drone attack of its kind by resistance forces on an airbase.

In a 28 September interview, Duwa Lashi La claimed that resistance forces had taken effective control of about 60% of Myanmar's territory.

Resistance offensives

In early June 2023, a coalition force of KNLA and other resistance forces ambushed junta forces at Don Tha Mi bridge checkpoints on the border of Karen and Mon states, inflicting heavy casualties. The next day, resistance groups raided the police station and junta offices in Kyain Seikgyi Township, Karen State in early June 2023, killing 10 junta soldiers and injuring 15 where the junta retaliated with 120 mm artillery fire and deploying attack helicopters, killing two local civilians and a monk.

At Kayah State on 13 June 2023, Karenni National People's Liberation Front (KNPLF) who previously entered into ceasefire with the central government and reformed into a Border Guard Force in 2009, openly defected to anti-junta forces and joined forces with KA, KNDF, KNLA, and PDF. The joint forces began attacking Burmese military positions. The combined resistance forces seized junta outposts and took over Mese Township in Eastern Kayah State. Light Infantry Battalion 430 soldiers, including their lieutenant colonel commander, surrendered to the resistance. In July 2023, KNLA forces and its allies attacked and took a junta base on Lat Khat Taung hill. During the attempt to recapture the hill, 20 junta soldiers were reportedly killed and 34 were wounded.

On 10 August there was a battle between junta's forces and a coalition of several rebel groups at Thandaung, near Nay Pyi Taw. The rebel forces' aim was to capture the 606th Light Infantry Division Headquarters in the region. According to NUG, the battle was in preparation for a major operation to infiltrate the capital.

Operation Kanaung

At least 76 junta soldiers were killed during Operation Kanaung which was jointly carried out by Ta'ang National Liberation Army and Mandalay People's Defense Force from July to September 2023.

Guerilla attacks

Ye River, Ye, Myanmar

Ye Belu, a local resistance group based in Ye Township, Mon state launched successive guerrilla attacks on the junta in June 2023. On 22 June, they attacked a junta security checkpoint at Chaung Taung bridge, killing four soldiers and one official working for the junta's Ministry of Immigration and Population in Lamaing. On 26 June, the group assassinated a Pyusawhti militia leader in Duya, Ye Township. On 28 June, Ye Belu ambushed an army convoy from the junta's No. 19 Military Operations Command, killing five soldiers and injuring others. From their attacks, the junta administration in Ye township broke down, having to close all administration offices in three towns; Lamaing, Khawzar and Ye itself. A combined resistance force of PDF and Ye Belu under the leadership of KNLA took control of the Mawlamyine-Ye-Dawei No. 8 Union Highway, installing checkpoints and arresting junta personnel.

Yangon Airport Terminal 1

Guerrilla attacks also continued in urban areas. On 19 June 2023, the Urban Owls guerilla group assassinated Ye Khaing, the operations director and the head of security of Yangon International Airport and a former air force major was assassinated outside his house at Mingaladon Township, Yangon. Ye Khaing was accused of providing information to the junta and aiding in detaining anti-junta activists at Myanmar's primary international airport Urban Owls also claimed that Ye Khaing was a confidante of Steven Law, the owner of Asia World Company, which operates the airport, and a major supporter of the regime in connection with second-in-command Senior General Soe Win.

Earlier in June 2023, NUG also announced the formation of Battalion 5101 of the People's Defence Forces, the PDF's first battalion of the Yangon Region.

2023 dry season campaigns

Operation 1027

Main article: Operation 1027

Map of anti-junta gains made during Operation 1027 as of 16 November

On 27 October, the Brotherhood Alliance (TNLA, MNDAA and AA) initiated Operation 1027, targeting the junta's checkpoints and bases near Lashio and the Phaung Seik border trade post at Chinshwehaw. Lashio Airport temporarily closed, and Chinshwehaw fell into ethnic armies' hands. Martial law was declared and two important border crossings on the China-Myanmar border near Laukkai were also closed. Over the next three days, the coalition forces captured 57 bases to which the junta responded with aerial bombardments.

On 30 October, Nawnghkio fell under limited TNLA and MDY-PDF control and 41 combatants, including three commanding officers, in Kunlong surrendered to the MNDAA. The next day, combined AA and KIA forces captured Gangdau Yang base on the Myitkyina-Bhamo road.

On 1 November, the junta sent a convoy to reinforce Nawnghkio, resulting in clashes with TNLA and MDY-PDF forces. During the battle, rebel forces blew up an armored car, took weapons and POWs. The junta forces retreated and established a camp in southwest Nawnghkio Township, which was assaulted by the rebel forces the following morning. According to Major-General Zaw Min Tun, the junta had to give up control of three towns in Northern Shan State, including Pang Hseng. TNLA, MNDAA, and AA declared control over four towns, including Chinshwehaw and Hsenwi. On 3 November, TNLA forces seized a suspension bridge over the Shweli River near Namhkam, and began an assault of the town.

Simultaneously, the Arakan Army (AA) engaged junta forces in Htigyaing Township, Sagaing Region on 27 October. By 3 November, the All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF) and local PDF forces began attacking multiple locations in Sagaing and Magway regions.

Kawlin fell to a combined force of AA, KIA, and local PDF on 6 November, marking the first district-level capital seized by the rebels during the operation. The next day, Khampat in Tamu Township, western Sagaing Region, was also taken by PDF forces.

Back in northern Shan, the town of Namkham also came under limited control of the TNLA on 6 November. The coalition then took junta's Panlong base in Kunlong Township on 7 November, killing Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, commander of the 99th Infantry Division, in the battle. Afterwards, the MNDAA took control over Monekoe and began restoring the town's functions. On the same day, the MNDAA took control of Kunlong's residential areas and sieged down the junta's base west of the town's river the following day.

On 8 November, TNLA and MDY-PDF attacked the junta's base near the Goteik viaduct, seizing the key Goktwin bridge on the main highway from Mandalay to China. A military base near Shwe Nyaung Pin village in Naung Cho is also attacked by TNLA. Four days later, the TNLA attacked Kyinti military base near Hsipaw.

On 17 November, the TNLA captured the Sakhan Thit Kone base in Namhkam Township only to lose it to a junta offensive the following day. The TNLA accused the junta of using chemical weapon bombs during the counter-seige.

Operation 1107 and 1111

Main articles: Operation 1107 and Operation 1111

Loikaw University

At the same time as Operation 1027 in northern Shan state, the KNLA and PDF combined forces launched an assault on Kawkareik, leading to severe clashes between the rebel forces and junta forces around the town.

On 7 November 2023, the KNPLF, KA and KNDF launched a joint military operation against the Tatmadaw. During the ongoing operation junta border posts in Mese Township, Kayah State (including Pantein) were seized by Karenni forces.

On 11 November, an operation dubbed Operation 1111 was launched on the Kayah State capital Loikaw. The KNDF and KA, alongside other rebel groups, attacked the city. The KNDF claimed responsibility for a Myanmar Air Force fighter jet that crashed in Eastern Kayah near Loikaw during the first day of the battle. A junta source stated that it was unclear if it crashed from enemy fire or from technical failure. On 15 November, the KNDF took control of Loikaw University after two days of fighting. 110+ junta soldiers were killed and 38 surrendered during the fighting.

Resumption of war in Rakhine

On the morning of 13 November, the Arakan Army attacked two border guard police stations in Rathedaung Township breaking the Rakhine State Ceasefire Agreement between the junta and AA. Dong Paik camp was captured by 6:30 am.

On 14 November, it was reported that the junta had already abandoned around 40 outposts in Rakhine state after attacks by the Arakan Army. However, not all of these immediately came under control of the Arakan Army. Dozens of Myanmar security officers surrendered to Arakan Army forces the following day.

The following night, AA launched an attack on Pauktaw, seizing the Pauktaw Township police station. By the morning of 16 November, AA had taken control of the town. The junta sent 2 helicopter gunships alongside naval support to fire back, causing civilians to hide in their homes and then in trenches as the houses were hit by heavy machine gun fire. Given Pauktaw's proximity to the Rakhine state capital, Sittwe, the seizure of the town poses a threat to the junta. Junta forces detained about 100 residents, mostly civilians who were unable to flee, and positioned themselves to surround the town, including two navy ships blockading the harbour.

Dry season campaigns effect on Tatmadaw

The Irrawaddy reported on 22nd of November that the Tatmadaw is preparing 14,000 soldiers for the defense of Naypyitaw, including by moving troops from other regions to the capital and mobilizing civil servants into the military. These preparations started soon after Operation 1027 was launched against the Tatmadaw. In addition Tatmadaw is preparing 10,000 troops for the defense of Mandalay, Bago and Yangon. There are also fortification works beginning, such as "Naypyitaw police stations are also preparing concrete blocks, sandbags and other materials needed to transform into defensive bases in just a few days".

On 18 November, the General Administration Department issued a local order to ban unauthorized drone flights and restrict the sale of drones and drone accessories in Yangon Region.

Humanitarian conditions

The human rights situation in Myanmar has deteriorated substantially since the beginning of the civil conflict. The Burmese military has escalated its use of war crimes, including murder, sexual violence, torture, and the targeting of civilians. The junta has also seized the properties of political opponents as part of an intimidation strategy, impacting hundreds of families.

Since the onset of the civil conflict, both the Burmese military and resistance forces alike have used educational facilities as bases and detention sites. In 2021, over 190 violent attacks on schools were reported in 13 of Myanmar's states and regions. As of June 2022, 7.8 million children remained out of school.

Myanmar's public health system has effectively collapsed, and the civil war has worsened the country's food security crisis, with one in four people experiencing food insecurity. Poverty and food insecurity have disproportionately affected Myanmar's Dry Zone and the Irrawaddy delta regions, which account for over 80% of the country's agricultural area and are home to a third of the country's population.

As of September 2022, 1.3 million people had been internally displaced, and over 13,000 children have been killed. By March 2023, the UN estimated that since the coup, 17.6 million people in Myanmar required humanitarian assistance, while 1.6 million were internally displaced, and 55,000 civilian buildings had been destroyed.

In March 2023, Volker Türk, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, reported that armed conflict had continued to grow. He stated that they were investigating hundreds of incidents of houses being burnt and civilians, including children, being killed. Overall, 15.2 million people faced food insecurity.

Economic impact

Economic conditions in Myanmar have substantially worsened due to the ongoing war and to economic mismanagement by the SAC. In 2021, Myanmar's GDP declined by 5.9%. In an interview Christian Lechervy, the French ambassador to Myanmar, highlighted the impact of the coup on the country's economy: "In 2021, Myanmar's economic growth has contracted by more than 18%, poverty has doubled, the number of people in need of humanitarian aid has multiplied by seven and more than 450,000 people have been forced to flee their homes". Between March and June 2022, almost 10,000 people per month left the country through official channels, worsening the country's brain drain and mirroring the civilian exodus that followed the 1962 and 1988 military coups. The local job market has collapsed. At the end of July 2023, the SAC announced that it would issue a limited number of new 20,000 kyat banknotes. The announcement led to the increase in gold price and foreign currency exchange rates.

As of September 2022, the value of the Burmese kyat has depreciated by over 60%, while basic commodity prices have increased by up to 57%. The World Bank estimates Myanmar's economy will contract by another 18% in 2022. Since April 2022, the country has experienced foreign currency shortages, which have acutely impacted importers, resulting in shortages of basic products like medicines and fertilisers. The military regime has imposed foreign currency controls, which has worsened the shortage of US dollars among international firms operating in the country. Many foreign and multinational companies, including Telenor, Ooredoo, Chevron, British American Tobacco, and Woodside Petroleum have exited the Burmese market as the conflict has intensified.

In September 2022, the G7-led Financial Action Task Force announced plans to blacklist Myanmar for failing to stem money laundering and terrorist financing. At that time, only Iran and North Korea were on the Financial Action Task Force blacklist. In October 2022, Myanmar was blacklisted by the task force, which increased volatility in the value of the Burmese kyat.

Other aspects

Anti-junta forces weapons and equipment manufacturing

The limited possession of guns by ethnic insurgent movements along with the lack of international support and formal means of acquiring military material has presented the anti-junta forces with a challenging situation for the confrontation of the military regime. Faced with this difficulty since the early stages of armed insurgency, the resistance movement sought ways to manufacture the necessary weapons and equipment for the conflict. Initially, the rebels expanded the production of a traditionally made, single-shot rifle known as Tumi, especially in the Chin state. Nonetheless, this kind of rifle is severely limited for battleground action. For this reason, the fighters have developed alternative models, more advanced, while still calling it Tumi. Since then, the resistance movement has developed many kinds of carbines, landmines and bomb drones, to be manufactured within the technological and material means of liberated territories and underground cells.

Commercially available drones rigged to carry bombs have been used to cause small blows to military positions. PDF groups have reportedly been producing naval bombs to target government logistics in rivers. Meanwhile, defected soldiers have reportedly been able to develop 60 mm long-range mortars. The use of 3D printing has also been reported, both to salvage weapons taken from the junta and for the improvised production of semiautomatic carbines.

Reactions

Domestic

In November 2023, the United Wa State Party declared Wa State a neutral zone after the Three Brotherhood Alliance conducted Operation 1027 against the Tatmadaw. The UWSP threatened the use of force against hypothetical anti-junta or Tatmadaw incursions via the UWSA while promising to aid refugees and other displaced persons.

International

NUG's UN Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun talks in an interview in 2022

In June 2021, the United Nations General Assembly passed a non-binding resolution asking member states to impose an arms embargo on Myanmar. 200 international organisations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have continued to press the UN and its member states to adopt a global arms embargo.

ASEAN

ASEAN has blocked Myanmar from participating in regional summits since the 2021 coup. For instance, during the 2022 ASEAN summit, Myanmar's chair remained empty. ASEAN member-states have not taken a consistent, coordinated approach with respect to the ongoing civil war, due to internal divisions. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore are strongly opposed to the military junta.

Thailand was a key ally of the junta; former Prime Minister of Thailand Prayut Chan-o-cha used back-channel contacts in mid-2021 to shape Thailand's diplomatic options, especially as these related to ASEAN. On 30 June 2022, when the Myanmar Air Force allegedly violated Thai airspace, Thailand scrambled a defense attache. Later, Prayuth said that the incident was "not a big deal". After the 2023 Thai general election, the new Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has shown support for the military's Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement urging all parties in Myanmar to stay on the path for peace and stability.

Singapore initially emphasised the importance of separating business from politics, but subsequently became wary of doing business with Myanmar. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong described the use of lethal force in the suppression of anti-junta protestors as "just not acceptable" and "disastrous". In 2022, Lee continued supporting the exclusion of the military regime from ASEAN meetings until the regime cooperates on ASEAN's peace plans. Currently, Singapore does not recognise the military junta. During the war Singapore has remained a major equipment supplier for the junta's weapons factories. Several Singapore-based firms have also served as intermediary companies for the junta, collectively shipping 254 million US dollars worth of arms to the junta between 2021 and 2023.

Other countries

Since its ascent, China and Russia have supported the military junta, have been its main arms suppliers. However, the Three Brotherhood Alliance's Operation 1027—having been carried out in an area near the China–Myanmar border whose status had been guaranteed by a China-mediated ceasefire—may indicate a shift in China's stance. The MNDAA, one of the three resistance groups in the Three Brotherhood Alliance, were reported to have been seen working with People's Liberation Army fighters in the operation. This change in stance could be driven by concerns about cyber-scam centers, the pursuit of favorable concessions from the junta on the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor, as well as the opportunity to influence the PDF in light of evolving dynamics between NUG and EAO groups.

Russia has embraced deeper ties with the Burmese military junta, as the civil war has progressed. Russia has provided materiel, military training for over 50 Myanmar Air Force pilots, and diplomatic backing to the regime. Min Aung Hlaing has visited Russia several times, personally meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in September 2022. The military junta backed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

India, which represents Myanmar's fourth-largest export market and fifth-largest import partner, has continued a business-as-usual approach to cross-border relations and continues to recognize the military junta. State-owned and private Indian companies, including Yantra India, supplied arms and raw materials to the junta, enabling the military to conduct surveillance and boost its artillery and missile stocks. A 2023 UN report alleges that these arms were likely to be used in the commission of international crime and that companies have avoided sanctions through shell companies.

The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union have, in response to the ongoing violence, sanctioned individuals and organisations associated with the Burmese military. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions has been undermined by poor coordination among the governments and the lack of sanctions against high-impact targets. As of February 2023, only 13% of Burmese sanctions targets were sanctioned by the US, the UK and the EU. Further, the UK and US governments have not sanctioned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), which is the country's largest source of foreign currency. Burmese sanctions targets have also evaded international sanctions by channeling funds through affiliated firms. For instance, a subsidiary of Myanma Economic Holdings Limited, a sanctioned military-owned conglomerate, created a new affiliated firm to import palm oil.

BURMA Act

On 23 December 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act (BURMA Act) into law, which provides the president with additional discretionary authority to make policy changes with respect to Myanmar. The law enables the president to provide "non-lethal assistance" to NUG, EAOs, PDFs, and pro-democracy organisations, to provide humanitarian aid to the country, to impose new sanctions, including on MOGE, and enables the secretary of state to assist civilian and international entities with identifying and documenting war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide in Myanmar.

In response to the BURMA Act, the Chinese government has quickly mobilised efforts to engage EAOs and the military junta, to protect Chinese business and geopolitical interests. China is particularly sensitive to Western support for EAOs along the Burmese-Chinese border, and has moved to simultaneously support the military junta and powerful EAOs like the United Wa State Army, which has supported pro-democracy forces. In late December, China's special envoy to Myanmar, Deng Xijun, was deployed to Naypyidaw to engage with the military junta. After Deng's visit, the Burmese military pulled 30 battalions from the Northeastern Command, and redeployed them to launch major offensives against pro-democracy forces in other areas like Kayah and Chin States, and Sagaing Region. Along with this, concerns have been growing with allegations of China no longer 'restraining' the influence of the insurgents, which some view as a response to the Burmese military's inaction over Chinese citizens being forced to work in scam centres in Shan state. On 13 November, China issued arrest warrants for junta-aligned Ming Xuecheng and his family members for their involvement in online scamming operations. According to The Diplomat, this move signals China's "tacit support for the removal of the Kokang SAZ's leadership".

See also

• Internal conflict in Myanmar
• 2021 Myanmar coup d'état
• Myanmar protests (2021–present)

External links

• International Institute for Strategic Studies – Myanmar Conflict Map
• Special Advisory Council Report – Contestation and Control/Resistance as of 30 June 2022