2023 Dutch general election

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2023 Dutch general election
Netherlands
← 2021 22 November 2023
All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
Turnout77.8% (Decrease 0.91 pp)[1]
Reporting
99.8%
as of 25 November 2023
Party Leader % Seats +/–
PVV Geert Wilders 23.6 37 +20
GL/PvdA Frans Timmermans 15.7 25 +8
VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius 15.2 24 −10
NSC Pieter Omtzigt 12.9 20 New
D66 Rob Jetten 6.3 9 −15
BBB Caroline van der Plas 4.7 7 +6
CDA Henri Bontenbal 3.3 5 −10
SP Lilian Marijnissen 3.2 5 −4
DENK Stephan van Baarle 2.4 3 0
FvD Thierry Baudet 2.2 3 −5
PvdD Esther Ouwehand 2.2 3 −3
SGP Chris Stoffer 2.1 3 0
CU Mirjam Bikker 2.0 3 −2
Volt Laurens Dassen 1.7 2 −1
JA21 Joost Eerdmans 0.7 1 −2
Map of results by municipality & province
Cabinet before Cabinet after
Fourth Rutte cabinet
VVD–D66–CDA–CU		 TBD

Early general elections were held in the Netherlands on 22 November 2023 to elect the members of the House of Representatives.[2][3]

The elections had been expected to be held in 2025, but a snap election was called after the fourth Rutte cabinet collapsed on 7 July 2023 due to immigration policy disagreements.[4] Incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that he would not lead his party into the election and retired from politics.[5]

The results of the election were described as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[6] with the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) becoming the largest party in the House of Representatives[6][7][8], and all four parties of the incumbent coalition government suffering losses.[9]

Background[edit]

The 2021 general election resulted in the formation of the fourth Rutte cabinet, consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). Mark Rutte continued in his role as prime minister.[10]

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. The 2023 Dutch provincial elections, which were won by the BBB, led to heavy losses for the ruling coalition. Since the provincial councils indirectly elect the Dutch Senate,[11] it meant that the ruling coalition had to face more difficulty passing legislation.[12]

The government resigned on 7 July 2023 after the four parties failed to agree on a proposed limitation of family reunification for refugees fleeing armed conflict.[4][13] The coalition government led by Mark Rutte collapsed ahead of the anticipated November elections due to irreconcilable disagreements on migration issues.[14] The dispute arose from Rutte's proposal to tighten restrictions on the reunification of asylum seekers' families, aiming to reduce the number of migrants following a previous scandal involving overcrowded migration centers. The opposition to Rutte's proposal, primarily from the CU and D66, led to a breakdown in negotiations.[15][16] This could have been seen as a move by Rutte to keep migration on the center stage as his party was disunited on his nitrogen policies.[17]

Leadership changes[edit]

On 10 July 2023, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced he would not run again as lead candidate for the VVD, and leave politics when a new cabinet would be sworn in. Other party leaders and parliamentary leaders also announced they would not return, including Sigrid Kaag (D66), Wopke Hoekstra, Pieter Heerma (both CDA),[18] Attje Kuiken (PvdA),[19] Kees van der Staaij (SGP),[20] Farid Azarkan (DENK),[21] Liane den Haan (independent),[22] Nilüfer Gündoğan (independent),[23] and Sylvana Simons (BIJ1).[24] Jesse Klaver announced that, although he wanted to continue as member of parliament, he would not be candidate for leader of the Labour Party–GroenLinks alliance. Additionally, Vera Bergkamp, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, did not stand for reelection.[25]

Electoral system[edit]

Main article: Elections in the Netherlands
Ballot of the 2023 Dutch general election

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[26] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively 1/4 of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[27][28]

Political parties and lead candidates[edit]

The following parties participated in the election and were on the ballot:

List Party Main ideology Lead candidate 2021 result Districts Ref.
1 People's Party for Freedom and Democracy VVD Conservative liberalism Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius 21.87% (34 seats) 20 [29]
2 Democrats 66 D66 Social liberalism Rob Jetten 15.02% (24 seats) 20 [30]
3
GroenLinks–PvdA
 GL/PvdA Social democracy, green politics Frans Timmermans 10.88% (17 seats)[a] 20 [31][32]
4 Party for Freedom PVV Nationalism, right-wing populism Geert Wilders 10.79% (17 seats) 20 [33]
5 Christian Democratic Appeal CDA Christian democracy Henri Bontenbal 9.50% (15 seats) 20 [34][35]
6 Socialist Party SP Democratic socialism, left-wing populism Lilian Marijnissen 5.98% (9 seats) 20 [36]
7 Forum for Democracy FVD National conservatism, right-wing populism Thierry Baudet 5.02% (8 seats) 20 [37]
8 Party for the Animals PvdD Environmentalism, Animal rights advocacy Esther Ouwehand 3.84% (6 seats) 20 [38]
9 Christian Union CU Christian democracy Mirjam Bikker 3.37% (5 seats) 20 [39]
10 Volt Netherlands Volt Eurofederalism Laurens Dassen 2.42% (3 seats) 20 [40][41]
11 JA21 JA21 Conservative liberalism, right-wing populism Joost Eerdmans 2.37% (3 seats) 20 [42]
12 Reformed Political Party SGP Christian right Chris Stoffer 2.07% (3 seats) 20 [43]
13 DENK DENK Minority interests Stephan van Baarle 2.03% (3 seats) 20 [44]
14 50PLUS 50+ Pensioners' interests Gerard van Hooft 1.02% (1 seat) 20 [45]
15 Farmer–Citizen Movement BBB Agrarianism Caroline van der Plas 1.00% (1 seat) 20 [46]
16 BIJ1 BIJ1 Anti-racism Edson Olf 0.84% (1 seat) 20 [47][48]
17
PPNL/DG Pirate politics, green politics Mark van Treuren 0.22% (0 seats)[b] 20 [49][50]
18 Interest of the Netherlands BVNL Right-wing populism, conservative liberalism Wybren van Haga — 20 [51]
19 New Social Contract NSC Christian democracy Pieter Omtzigt — 20 [52]
20 Splinter SPL Anti-identity politics Femke Merel van Kooten-Arissen 0.29% (0 seats) 20 [53]
21 Libertarian Party LP Libertarianism Tom van Lamoen 0.05% (0 seats) 19 [54]
22 LEF – For the New Generation LEF Youth politics Daniël van Duijn — 19 [55]
23 Together for the Netherlands SvN Right-wing populism Michel Reijinga — 19 [56][57]
24 Netherlands with a Plan NLPLAN Participatory democracy Kok Kuen Chan — 17 [58]
25 Party for Sports PvdS Health promotion Annemarie van Duivenboden — 11 [59]
26 Political Party for Basic Income PPvB Universal basic income advocacy Sepp Hannen — 8 [60]

Campaign[edit]

Debates[edit]

Dutch general election debates, 2023
Date Organisers Channel Venue  P  Present   I  Invited   NI  Not invited   A  Absent   Ref.
22 October College Tour NPO 3 Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI NI P [61]
30 October GL/PvdA, NSC Youtube Luxor Live, Arnhem NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI [62][63]
3 November NOS NPO Radio 1 Nieuwspoort, The Hague P P P P P P P P A P P P P P P P P [64]
5 November RTL Nieuws RTL 4 Felix Meritis, Amsterdam NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI NI P [65]
12 November NI NI NI NI NI P P NI A P NI A NI P NI P P [66]
16 November Talpa TV SBS6 Media Park, Hilversum NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI P P [67]
17 November ND Verkiezingsdebat Youtube De Basiliek, Veenendaal NI P P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI [68]
17 November SP, NSC Youtube Unknown NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI [69]
17 November EenVandaag NPO 1 Media Park, Hilversum NI P P NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI [70]
18 November NI NI NI P P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI [70]
18 November Omroep Brabant,
Omroep Zeeland, L1 		Evoluon, Eindhoven NI NI P NI NI P P NI A P NI A NI P NI P P [71]
19 November Jeugdjournaal NPO 3 Media Park, Hilversum NI NI P NI NI P NI NI A NI NI P NI P NI P P [64]
20 November EenVandaag NPO 1 Ahoy, Rotterdam NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI P P [70]
21 November NOS B67, The Hague P P NI P P NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI P NI NI [64]
NI NI P NI NI P P NI P P NI P NI P NI P P [64]

NOS op 3 debates[edit]

In addition to the conventional debates, a series of debates between two or three party leaders is hosted by news programme NOS op 3. The debates are broadcast through the programme's media outlets, such as radio and YouTube. The debates are broadcast in real-time and are held with a select group of young people present, who, in addition to the viewers on the YouTube live stream, ask the candidates various questions.[72]

Assaults and attacks on Thierry Baudet[edit]

Thierry Baudet founder and leader of Forum for Democracy (FvD) was assaulted on 26 October 2023 with an umbrella upon his arrival at Ghent University.[73][74]

On 20 November 2023, Baudet was assaulted at a campaign even in Groningen with a beer bottle, and was later hospitalized. Numerous politicians denounced the attack, with Mark Rutte stating that the attack was "totally unacceptable".[75][76]

Opinion polls[edit]

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Dutch general election

Results[edit]

10
20
30
40
PVV
GL–PvdA
VVD
NSC
D66
BBB
CDA
SP
FvD
PvdD
CU
DENK
SGP
Volt
JA21
50+
BIJ1
  •   Maintained
  •   Gained
  •   Lost
99.8% reporting
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Party for Freedom2,442,31823.6137+20
GroenLinks–PvdA1,620,79215.6725+8
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy1,574,50415.2224−10
New Social Contract1,329,69812.8620New
Democrats 66647,2976.269−15
Farmer–Citizen Movement481,5764.667+6
Christian Democratic Appeal343,5293.325−10
Socialist Party325,8933.155–4
DENK247,4062.3930
Party for the Animals231,7542.243−3
Forum for Democracy230,0582.223−5
Reformed Political Party216,8952.1030
Christian Union211,4762.043−2
Volt Netherlands174,5901.692−1
JA2170,6210.681−2
Belang van Nederland52,7410.510New
50PLUS50,8570.490−1
BIJ143,8870.420−1
Splinter13,3120.1300
Pirate Party–The Greens9,1480.0900
Netherlands with a Plan5,4470.050New
Together for the Netherlands5,3180.050New
LEF – For the New Generation5,0530.050New
Libertarian Party4,1550.0400
Party for Sports3,9590.040New
Political Party for Basic Income1,0250.010New
Total10,343,309100.001500
Valid votes10,343,30999.61
Invalid/blank votes40,7470.39
Total votes10,384,056100.00
Registered voters/turnout77.7%
Source: NOS

By province[edit]

Results by province[77]
Province PVV GL-
PvdA 		VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP DENK FvD PvdD SGP CU Volt JA21 Others
 Drenthe 26.0 14.0 12.6 16.0 4.5 8.8 3.7 3.3 0.5 2.3 1.8 0.8 2.6 1.0 0.6 0.8
 Flevoland 26.6 11.8 14.8 12.2 4.5 5.2 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 1.9 3.8 2.6 1.1 0.7 2.6
 Friesland 24.5 14.6 11.2 16.3 4.3 8.3 5.3 3.4 0.4 2.7 1.8 1.0 2.7 0.9 0.7 1.7
 Gelderland 22.2 15.4 14.4 13.2 5.9 6.2 3.6 2.9 1.4 2.0 2.2 4.1 2.8 1.5 0.6 1.5
 Groningen 21.8 20.2 9.9 14.6 5.7 6.1 3.0 4.5 0.8 2.3 2.7 0.9 3.4 1.9 0.6 1.7
 Limburg 30.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 4.8 4.4 3.4 3.7 1.2 2.3 1.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.7
 North Brabant 26.9 13.1 18.1 12.7 6.6 4.4 3.5 4.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.7
 North Holland 19.8 20.7 17.1 10.1 7.9 3.2 2.3 3.1 3.4 2.5 3.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 0.7 2.8
 Overijssel 22.0 11.6 11.1 21.9 4.3 8.5 3.5 2.4 1.4 2.1 1.5 3.0 3.4 1.3 0.6 1.1
 South Holland 24.4 14.7 16.0 10.9 6.4 2.6 3.3 2.7 4.1 2.4 2.3 3.1 2.4 1.8 0.8 1.9
 Utrecht 17.6 20.5 16.2 10.5 8.4 2.8 3.4 2.3 3.1 1.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.6 0.6 1.6
 Zeeland 23.9 11.1 14.7 12.1 4.1 5.9 4.3 3.1 0.8 2.5 1.8 9.7 2.9 0.7 0.7 1.7
 Caribbean Netherlands 11.6 14.7 11.7 8.4 24.0 3.3 1.6 1.5 0.5 2.3 2.2 0.4 12.5 1.5 0.3 3.5

Aftermath[edit]

Political analysis[edit]

International media described the results as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[78] and as a landslide victory for the Party for Freedom (PVV).[79][80][81] Many analysts speculated that the rise of the PVV was due to great debate performances by Wilders in the weeks upcoming to the election. Since the largest issue of the election was shifted to the topic of migration it helped to boost the appeal of a Wilders.[82] Some politics journalists opined that Wilders was able to build wider support by softening some of his statements after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz suggested she might include the PVV in negotiations and declaring in a debate that he would be “a Prime Minister for all Dutch people."[83] Others commented ahead of the election that newer anti-establishment and alternative parties to the PVV such as the Forum for Democracy, JA21, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract ran out of steam after voters had experimented with them before moving back to the PVV as Wilders had remained a stronger and more consistent political figure.[84]

In addition, the leader of the GroenLinks–PvdA coalition, Frans Timmermans was disliked amongst many right wingers and since the VVD and NSC did not directly rule out working with either PVV or GL-PvdA it lead to voters from right-wing parties consolidating around Wilders in order to prevent a Timmermans premiership.[85] Farmer–Citizen Movement faced a decline from their peak in the provincial elections in March with many of their voters going towards NSC or PVV as the issues around nitrogen was only a minor topic in the campaign.[86]

The results of the elections are expected to lead to protracted and complicated coalition talks. Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte will remain in a caretaker capacity, and the incumbent coalition government will continue as a demissionary cabinet until the next coalition government is sworn in, which can take up to several months.

Reactions[edit]

Following his victory, Wilders was praised by Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. He was also praised by far-right leaders across Europe such as Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, André Ventura, Alice Weidel, Tom Van Grieken, and Santiago Abascal.[87][88]

All parties of the incumbent coalition government lost seats in this election.[9] Incumbent coalition party Democrats 66 leader Rob Jetten blamed the senior coalition party VVD and its leader Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius for the successes of Wilders and the PVV in the election, saying on election night that "Yeşilgöz left the door wide open for Wilders" and blaming her party's campaign strategy for allowing "the politics of intolerance [to be] normalized while it should never be normal". Yeşilgöz denied her party's strategy was to blame for the PVV's success, saying, "It was not the VVD that made the PVV great. The voters did that."[89]

Government formation[edit]

Main article: 2023–2024 Dutch cabinet formation

According to Reuters, there are four possible outcomes of the election:[90]

PVV-led coalition[edit]

The first involves a government, led by PVV.[91] Due to its Eurosceptic, anti-immigration and anti-Islamic policies,[92][93][94] many parties said prior to the elections that they would not form a government with Wilders and PVV.[90]

Wilders has indicated interest in commencing negotiations with the other parties, saying: "I call on the parties... Now we will have to look for agreements with each other". Further proclaiming that "the PVV can no longer be ignored".[80]

Yeşilgöz of VVD has expressed scepticism of a Wilders-led coalition government as she does not believe he can form a majority, saying on 22 November after the release of the exit polls: "It's his move now. He has to show whether he can form a majority."[95]

After the release of the exit polls, Pieter Omtzigt of the NSC party expressed interest in joining a coalition government by saying that he is "available", although he did not specify which parties he's expecting to reach out to him. He warned that negotiation of such a coalition agreement with PVV will "not be easy".[80] Omtzigt had previously indicated unwillingness to work with PVV in a coalition government as he believed that they do not meet the "basic conditions of the rule of law".[96]

GroenLinks–PvdA lead candidate Frans Timmermans appeared to rule out a coalition with PVV over its anti-immigration views, saying: "We will never form a coalition with parties that pretend that asylum seekers are the source of all misery".[78]

On 23 November, after a party meeting, VVD leader Yeşilgöz-Zegerius reiterated her scepticism and hinted at Wilders' divisiveness, saying: “I didn’t see that this country would have a leader who does not bring together all Dutch people … but above all I don’t see a majority forming”[97]

On 24 November, Wilders expressed his hope of forming a coalition consisting of the PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB. BBB leader Caroline van der Plas said she was willing to join a coalition led by Wilders, while the NSC and leader Pieter Omtzigt were not fully decided on whether to enter talks. Omtzigt left the option open of joining a coalition with Wilders, but said coalition talks would be tough and that there was "no guarantee that he would join".

VVD leader Yeşilgöz reiterated that she had ruled out a coalition with Wilders, and said the election losses for her party of "almost a third" of the seats were a "clear signal" that it was not appropriate for VVD to continue in government, but she said VVD would be open to being a "kind of confidence and supply" partner by backing Wilders from the outside, and would enable a center-right coalition led by Wilders.[98][99][100] Wilders expressed disappointment to this decision.[101]

PVV Senator Gom van Strien has been appointed as scout for the first phase of government formation by the Speaker of the House of Representatives Vera Bergkamp on 24 November.[102]

Big tent coalition[edit]

A broad big tent government involving GL–PvdA, VVD, NSC, and D66 would result in 78 seats, a slim majority.[97] However, divisions remain on taxation and migration policies, with leftist parties seeking an increase on wealth tax and a "softer tone on asylum seekers".[90]

Centrist minority government[edit]

As the kingmakers in this election, a minority government could be formed by the VVD and NSC. According to Reuters, "Omtzigt has said he would favour this setup as it would prevent parties from rigidly sticking to prearranged plans. This also would seek to work with right-wing parties on issues like immigration, while working with left-wing parties on social issues. However, the VVD has said this type of government is inherently unstable and not a preferred option."[90]

Snap election[edit]

If no coalition can be formed, new snap elections can be called to seek a feasible parliament composition.[91]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ As the Labour Party (9 seats) and GroenLinks (8 seats)
  2. ^ As the Pirate Party (0 seats) and The Greens (0 seats)

References[edit]

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External links[edit]

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